Heterogeneous Effects

Working on

Reviewing RF class notes. Data snapshot requested to Diego (5 RCTs: Italy, Colombia, Netherlands, Spain, UK). Variable selection in progress.

Phase

Concept

Data

Exploration

Analysis

Writing

Revision

Submitted

Status

Method

Random forest + HTE

Data

5 RCTs — access pending

Stage

Variable selection

Reference

McKenzie et al. VoxDevLit 2025

Framework — Three Categories

Person-level

SDM capability, ambiguity aversion, learning orientation, experience, illusion of control

Venture-level

BM development stage, sector, team composition, idea scope

Dosage

Attendance, sessions completed, mentor engagement

Documents

One-pager v2 One-pager v1

Progress Log

2026-04-25

RF class notes received. Data snapshot requested to Diego. Reviewing notes and selecting variables by category.

2026-04-24

Two conversations with Alfonso. Framework agreed: three categories (person, venture, dosage). Method: random forest exploration first, then HTE. Data access proposal to Diego in progress.

2026-04-23

One-pager v2 sent to Alfonso. He responded in 3 minutes. Meeting same day.

2026-04-22

One-pager v1 drafted (cognitive moderators angle). Diego confirmed: unc_aversion, risk_aversion, learning_orientation present in 5 RCTs (Italy, Colombia, Netherlands, Spain, UK).

Next Steps

Finish reviewing RF class notes
Receive data snapshot from Diego
Read Chernozhukov, Duflo et al. (Econometrica 2025)
Run RF by category on snapshot
Send intermediate results to Alfonso

Heterogeneous Effects of Theory-Based Training